APPENDICES

Summary P&L for Tesla Motors 29
Detailed Model S P&L 30
Detailed Gen III P&L 31
Detailed Model X P&L 32
Detailed Roadster P&L 33
Detailed Electric Powertrain Sales
P&L 34
Detailed Development Services
P&L 35

See the Interactive Valuation Breakdown on Trefis
Our share price estimate and the overall company value is derived by
summing-up the values of individual divisions/businesses in a sum-of-theparts analysis. The value of each division is calculated using a discounted cash
flow (DCF) methodology.
We forecast fundamental drivers like pricing, market share, and profit
margins for different businesses in estimating the division’s value within the
DCF framework. The analysis below primarily focuses on those important
forecasts that drive our share price and value estimate.
Our complete analysis, including sources of historical data, underlying
equations and additional discussion are available on www.trefis.com.
— POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE —

Our price estimate for Tesla Motors is highly sensitive to the growth of the
EV market during the course of our forecast period. We have measured the
size of the EV market as a percentage of the total passenger vehicle market,
which is expected to grow from the current level of around 88 million to
almost 129 million by the end of our forecast period. We estimate the EV
market (includes HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs) currently makes up close to
3.1% of the total passenger vehicle market, and expect it to reach 6.8% by the
end of our forecast period. If the rate of adoption of the vehicles is lower,
with EVs making up just 6% of the total car market by the end of our forecast
period, there would be a 20% downside to our price estimate. On the other
hand, if circumstances favor a higher rate of adoption, of say almost 8% by
the end of our forecast period, there would be a 15% upside to our price
estimate.
Tesla is expected to begin delivery of the Gen III to customers in 2017.
We believe that the company will sell around 50,000 units in 2017 and ramp
up to more than 300,000 units by 2020. This equates to a market share (of
the EV market) of around 1.3% in 2017 and 9.3% in 2024.
If sales fall short of projected volumes, there could be a significant
downside to the Trefis price estimate. Assuming the market size remains
constant, if Gen III's market share manages to ramp up to only around
500,000 units by 2024 (a market share of 6%), there would be a downside of
over 10% to our price estimate. Conversely, if the cars are well received in the
market and Tesla ramps up production to 1,000,000 by the end of the

TREFIS ANALYSIS for TESLA MOTORS

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